Today’s Leicester Mercury contains an article headlined ‘Will City slicker Fryatt have a goal-den eye for Tigers?’
It claims, “Last season, in City’s rise to the play-offs, Fryatt scored 12 goals in 27 appearances and was on course for a 20-goal campaign when he suffered a broken jaw against Doncaster in February.”
But is that true? It really depends how you look at it.
If we choose not to take form into account we can assume that Fryatt’s record of 12 goals as of Leicester’s 28th league game of the season could have continued at the same rate of approximately one goal every three matches. Another six goals in Leicester’s remaining 18 fixtures would have left Fryatt on 18 for the season – close enough.
Unfortunately what this analysis fails to take into account is that eight of Fryatt’s league goals last season came in the first eight matches. After a blistering start, Fryatt went on to score just four times in the 20 subsequent league appearances before his injury. In that run only QPR failed to adequately deal with Fryatt as he netted a brace at Loftus Road. His other two strikes were a meaningless consolation in a 3-1 home defeat to Bristol City, and a penalty against Sheffield United (which, admittedly, he won himself). In short, it seemed many Championship defences had learnt how to deal with him.
Of course, his form might have improved, but it’s too simplistic to claim that Fryatt was ‘on course’ for a 20-goal haul.